Authors : Faroque Ahmed, Kazi Sohag, Oleg Mariev, Rakibul Islam, Md Ariful Alam, Mahfuzur Rahman Shuvo
Publication date : 2025/3/16
Journal : Chinese Political Science Review
Pages : 1-36
Publisher : Springer Nature Singapore
Description : Purpose
The interconnectedness of the global financial system increases its vulnerability to crises driven by Geopolitical Risks (GPR) and Economic Policy Uncertainties (EPU). This study examines the spillover effects of GPR and EPU on the Financial Stress Indices (FSI) of China, Russia, and the USA, and uncovers the transmission mechanisms driving these effects, offering a detailed analysis from global/external, country-specific, and mutual (GDP-weighted average of all three countries) perspectives.
Methods
We employ Cross-Quantilogram (CQ) and Recursive-CQ (R-CQ) methods to analyse high-frequency monthly data from 2000 to 2023, identifying spillover patterns and providing a comparative overview.
Results
We find that GPR and EPU have significant short-term effects on the FSI of these superpowers, but that they exhibit long-term resilience. The USA exhibits the highest resilience, with country-specific …
Total citations : Cited by 33
Scholar articles : Spillover effects of global, local, and mutual risks on financial stress: how do superpowers react?
F Ahmed, K Sohag, O Mariev, R Islam, MA Alam… – Chinese Political Science Review, 2025